China's Expanding Naval Ambitions: The Quest for Overseas Bases

China, boasting the world's largest naval fleet comprising over 340 warships, has been predominantly recognized as a green-water navy, primarily operating close to its own shores. However, recent developments in Chinese shipbuilding indicate grander ambitions. China has launched substantial guided-missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships, and aircraft carriers, all designed to operate in open ocean conditions, projecting power across thousands of miles from its capital, Beijing.

To sustain this global reach, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) requires overseas ports for refueling and replenishing provisions far from home. A new analysis from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based think tank, highlights China's drive for port access. This includes involvement in constructing a naval base in Cambodia and scouting potential locations for military outposts as far-reaching as Africa's Atlantic coast.

The FDD's report also notes the existence of PLA facilities in places like Argentina and Cuba. These facilities serve multiple functions, from monitoring space and satellite tracking to eavesdropping on Western countries' communications. Together, these efforts aim to augment China's military presence beyond its borders, which currently includes just one operational overseas naval base in Djibouti, located in the Horn of Africa.

Chinese officials contend that the Djibouti base supports their anti-piracy and humanitarian missions in Africa and West Asia. They have repeatedly emphasized that China does not seek expansion or spheres of influence abroad and refute claims of cooperation with other nations for establishing overseas bases.

However, the FDD's research relies on open-source intelligence and reporting, including satellite imagery, which demonstrates substantial development at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia. This expansion raises questions about China's true intentions.

The FDD report states, "The PLA's expanding global footprint and corresponding ability to conduct a wider range of missions, including limited warfighting, carries major risks for the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific as well as other operational theaters."

The report's author, Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at FDD, insists that China's quest for overseas military outposts is a matter of "when, not if."

China's path to establishing permanent overseas bases is complex. Countries hosting U.S. bases typically have defense treaties with the United States, but China lacks formal allies. This raises questions about the incentive for countries to welcome Chinese bases. Moreover, operating overseas bases exposes China to security risks, including involvement in domestic conflicts in host countries.

China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and its focus on breaking out of its perceived encirclement by the U.S. and its allies suggest a desire to project its military power and vision for global security abroad. This ambition aligns with Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative, which has enabled Chinese firms to gain stakes in ports worldwide.

While some experts argue that China may rely on lower-end dual-use options, such as ports linked to commercial infrastructure, rather than establishing overseas bases, there is a growing case for a more robust military presence. This evolution in China's military strategy is driven by its desire to protect overseas interests and project its forces globally.

In response, some members of the U.S. Congress urge the Defense Department to counter China's expanding footprint. They advocate for stronger diplomatic engagement with countries targeted by China's military expansion, offering them the United States as a stronger economic and security partner.

The Pentagon shares concerns about the lack of transparency in China's activities and aims to ensure Indo-Pacific nations can make choices aligned with their interests. China's ambitions for overseas bases represent a complex geopolitical challenge that will continue to evolve in the years to come.